{"id":113633,"date":"2025-01-31T10:09:30","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T09:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jazairhope.org\/?p=113633"},"modified":"2025-01-31T10:12:29","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T09:12:29","slug":"la-france-entre-dans-cinq-annees-de-vaches-maigres-financieres-une-crise-economique-imminente","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jazairhope.org\/fr\/la-france-entre-dans-cinq-annees-de-vaches-maigres-financieres-une-crise-economique-imminente\/","title":{"rendered":"La France entre dans cinq ann\u00e9es de \u00ab vaches maigres \u00bb financi\u00e8res : Une crise \u00e9conomique imminente"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"113633\" class=\"elementor elementor-113633\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"penci-section penci-disSticky penci-structure-10 elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5295e497 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5295e497\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"penci-ercol-100 penci-ercol-order-1 penci-sticky-ct    elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6464df9e\" data-id=\"6464df9e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5642795f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5642795f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>La sant\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de la France, deuxi\u00e8me \u00e9conomie de la zone euro, a atteint un seuil critique, selon les r\u00e9v\u00e9lations alarmantes de Pierre Moscovici, pr\u00e9sident de la Cour des Comptes fran\u00e7aise, mises en lumi\u00e8re dans un r\u00e9cent podcast du professeur Kamal Deeb intitul\u00e9\u00a0<em>\u00ab \u0641\u0631\u0646\u0633\u0627 \u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0631\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0627 \u062e\u0645\u0633 \u0633\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0639\u062c\u0627\u0641 \u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0627 \u00bb<\/em>\u00a0(\u00ab La France entre officiellement dans cinq ann\u00e9es de vaches maigres financi\u00e8res \u00bb). Cette analyse d\u00e9peint un tableau sombre d\u2019une dette insoutenable, de d\u00e9ficits structurels et d\u2019inertie politique qui menacent de d\u00e9stabiliser non seulement la France, mais toute la zone euro.<\/p><h3>\u00a0<\/h3><h3><strong>Une bombe \u00e0 retardement financi\u00e8re<\/strong><\/h3><p>La dette publique fran\u00e7aise s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve d\u00e9sormais \u00e0\u00a0<strong>113 % du PIB<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 la troisi\u00e8me plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e de la zone euro \u2014, avec des co\u00fbts annuels de service de la dette avalant \u00e0 eux seuls\u00a0<strong>50 milliards d\u2019euros<\/strong>. Parall\u00e8lement, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire a explos\u00e9 pour atteindre\u00a0<strong>6,1 % du PIB<\/strong>\u00a0(180 milliards d\u2019euros), soit\u00a0<em>le double<\/em>\u00a0de la limite autoris\u00e9e par les r\u00e8gles europ\u00e9ennes. Pierre Moscovici avertit que la situation n\u2019est plus simplement \u00ab pr\u00e9occupante \u00bb, mais qu\u2019elle est entr\u00e9e dans une zone \u00ab dangereuse \u00bb. Ces chiffres, insiste-t-il, refl\u00e8tent les cons\u00e9quences d\u2019une gestion fiscale hasardeuse durant le deuxi\u00e8me mandat du pr\u00e9sident Emmanuel Macron, qualifi\u00e9 par les experts de\u00a0<strong>\u00ab catastrophe financi\u00e8re \u00bb<\/strong>.<\/p><h3>\u00a0<\/h3><h3><strong>L\u2019illusion de l\u2019aust\u00e9rit\u00e9<\/strong><\/h3><p>Pour se conformer aux exigences europ\u00e9ennes, la France doit r\u00e9duire son d\u00e9ficit \u00e0 3 % du PIB d\u2019ici 2029. Cela impliquerait une r\u00e9duction annuelle du d\u00e9ficit de\u00a0<strong>0,6 %<\/strong>\u00a0sur cinq ans \u2014 un objectif jug\u00e9 \u00ab extr\u00eamement difficile \u00bb par Moscovici, compte tenu du contexte g\u00e9opolitique et \u00e9conomique actuel. Pourtant, m\u00eame cet objectif modeste repose sur des mesures d\u2019aust\u00e9rit\u00e9 politiquement risqu\u00e9es. Le gouvernement pr\u00e9voit de rationaliser les d\u00e9penses en supprimant des centaines d\u2019<strong>agences publiques<\/strong>\u00a0(pr\u00e8s de 700) jug\u00e9es inefficaces ou redondantes. Par exemple, l\u2019<strong>Agence BIO<\/strong>, dot\u00e9e d\u2019un budget annuel de 2,9 millions d\u2019euros et employant 29 agents, sera ferm\u00e9e en 2025. De m\u00eame, le\u00a0<strong>Haut-Commissariat aux Plans<\/strong>, cr\u00e9\u00e9 en 2020 sous l\u2019\u00e9gide de l\u2019actuel Premier ministre Gabriel Attal, n\u2019a produit qu\u2019un seul rapport en quatre ans \u2014 ignor\u00e9 par les autorit\u00e9s \u2014 malgr\u00e9 un budget de 1,9 million d\u2019euros par an.<\/p><p>Cependant, ironie du sort, le gouvernement Attal s\u2019oppose farouchement \u00e0 la suppression de certaines de ces structures, perp\u00e9tuant ainsi un syst\u00e8me client\u00e9liste et aggravant le d\u00e9ficit. \u00ab\u00a0<em>La r\u00e9sistance politique \u00e0 ces r\u00e9formes est un suicide \u00e9conomique<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, r\u00e9sume Moscovici.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><blockquote><h3><strong>Moscovici : D\u00e9rapage du d\u00e9ficit : \u00ab On s\u2019est tromp\u00e9 sur tout \u00bb<\/strong><\/h3><p>Dans une intervention retentissante lors du\u00a0<em>Grand Jury RTL-Le Figaro-Public S\u00e9nat<\/em>\u00a0le\u00a0<strong>26 janvier 2025<\/strong>, Pierre Moscovici, premier pr\u00e9sident de la Cour des comptes, a dress\u00e9 un constat accablant :\u00a0<strong>\u00ab On s\u2019est tromp\u00e9 sur tout en 2023 et 2024. On s\u2019est tromp\u00e9 sur les pr\u00e9visions macro\u00e9conomiques, sur les d\u00e9penses, sur les recettes \u00bb<\/strong>. Initialement estim\u00e9 \u00e0\u00a0<strong>4,4 % du PIB<\/strong>\u00a0\u00e0 l\u2019automne 2023, le d\u00e9ficit public s\u2019\u00e9tablit finalement \u00e0\u00a0<strong>6,1 %<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 un \u00e9cart qualifi\u00e9 de \u00ab\u00a0<strong>faillite des pr\u00e9visions<\/strong>\u00a0\u00bb \u2014, bien au-del\u00e0 des 3 % tol\u00e9r\u00e9s par Bruxelles.<\/p><p>\u00ab\u00a0<em>Certaines mauvaises surprises \u00e9taient difficiles \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir [&#8230;] mais il est impossible de pr\u00e9tendre que personne ne connaissait la fragilit\u00e9 r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9e des pr\u00e9visions<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, a-t-il ass\u00e9n\u00e9 devant les d\u00e9put\u00e9s de la commission d\u2019enqu\u00eate de l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale. Ces erreurs, selon lui, r\u00e9v\u00e8lent un\u00a0<strong>d\u00e9ni syst\u00e9mique<\/strong>\u00a0des risques et une\u00a0<strong>absence de rigueur<\/strong>\u00a0dans la gestion des finances publiques. Pour \u00e9viter de r\u00e9p\u00e9ter ces erreurs, Moscovici plaide pour une\u00a0<strong>r\u00e9forme urgente des m\u00e9thodes de pr\u00e9vision<\/strong>\u00a0et une supervision ind\u00e9pendante des hypoth\u00e8ses budg\u00e9taires.<\/p><\/blockquote><h3>\u00a0<\/h3><h3><strong>Un contexte mondial hostile<\/strong><\/h3><p>La France tente de naviguer dans une temp\u00eate parfaite : hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de la BCE, co\u00fbts \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques volatils, et d\u00e9penses publiques galopantes dans des secteurs comme la d\u00e9fense et la transition \u00e9cologique. Les \u00ab ann\u00e9es noires \u00bb de 2022 et 2023 ont laiss\u00e9 des s\u00e9quelles durables, et le plan de redressement de 2024-2029 repose sur des hypoth\u00e8ses optimistes \u2014 croissance du PIB \u00e0 1,4 % par an, stabilit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique \u2014 qui semblent irr\u00e9alistes face aux crises ukrainienne, moyen-orientale et asiatique.<\/p><h3>\u00a0<\/h3><h3><strong>Urgence absolue : Un appel \u00e0 l\u2019action<\/strong><\/h3><p>Pour \u00e9viter un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 la grecque \u2014 o\u00f9 la dette entra\u00eene une cure d\u2019aust\u00e9rit\u00e9 brutale impos\u00e9e par l\u2019UE \u2014, la France doit adopter des\u00a0<strong>r\u00e9formes structurelles douloureuses<\/strong>\u00a0: r\u00e9duction des niches fiscales, modernisation de l\u2019administration, et r\u00e9vision des d\u00e9penses sociales. Mais avec des \u00e9lections europ\u00e9ennes en 2024 et une polarisation politique croissante, la classe dirigeante semble paralys\u00e9e.<\/p><p>\u00ab\u00a0<em>Sans courage politique, la France deviendra le maillon faible de l\u2019Europe<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, conclut Moscovici. Le temps presse : les cinq prochaines ann\u00e9es d\u00e9termineront si le pays peut \u00e9viter un effondrement financier ou sombrer dans une d\u00e9cennie perdue.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><div class=\"ose-youtube ose-uid-89f4a7eff6434e47e282b0940e0a6d67 ose-embedpress-responsive\" style=\"width:600px; height:550px; max-height:550px; max-width:100%; display:inline-block;\"><iframe allowFullScreen=\"true\" title=\"\u0623.\u062f.\u0643\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u062f\u064a\u0628: \u0641\u0631\u0646\u0633\u0627 \u062a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0631\u0633\u0645\u064a\u0627 \u062e\u0645\u0633 \u0633\u0646\u0648\u0627\u062a \u0639\u062c\u0627\u0641 \u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0627.\" width=\"600\" height=\"550\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/HxonlwEnyCE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; encrypted-media;accelerometer;autoplay;clipboard-write;gyroscope;picture-in-picture clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtl.fr\/actu\/politique\/invite-rtl-derapage-du-deficit-on-s-est-trompe-sur-tout-estime-pierre-moscovici-7900465770\">des d\u00e9clarations de Pierre Moscovici<\/a> au\u00a0<em>Grand Jury RTL-Le Figaro-Public S\u00e9nat<\/em>\u00a0(26\/01\/2025).<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Hope&amp;ChaDia<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La sant\u00e9 financi\u00e8re de la France, deuxi\u00e8me \u00e9conomie de la zone euro, a atteint un seuil critique, selon les r\u00e9v\u00e9lations alarmantes de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":113634,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[39,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-113633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles-en-vedette","category-economie"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.6 - 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